Back in the 1980’s, Bill James developed something he called “The Favorite
Toy”. It’s used to determine a player’s chance of reaching a
statistical goal. He developed it for baseball, along with
many other statistical playthings. Most of them are so
specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport,
but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.
Here’s how it works.
There are four things that need to be considered:
1 The need points. The number of points needed to each the
goal. This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or
whatever stat is being considered.
2 The years remaining. This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age). Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5. Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age. I used the player’s age as of July 1st.
3 The established point level. It’s three times the most
recent season’s point total plus two times the season before plus one times
the season before that, divided by 6. Sylvia Fowles, for
example, scored 680 points in 2011, 606 points in 2010, and 270 points in
2009. ((680*3)+(606*2)+270)/6 = 587, so that was her
established point level. Again, this could be the established
rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration. Players
in their first or second year get 0’s for the previous seasons in which they
did not play.
4 The projected remaining points. Multiply the years remaining
by the established point level. Once again, this could be
rebounds or whatever.
Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is
(projected remaining divided by need) - .5. If the need and
the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of
reaching the goal. If the projected remaining is 20% higher
than need, the chance would be 70%.
Points
| Player | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 | 8000 | 9000 | 10000 | 10646 | 11000 | 12000 | 13000 | 14000 | 15000 | 16000 | 17000 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 8243 | 8243 | 8243 | 8243 | 35% | |||||||||
| Breanna Stewart | 6860 | 6860 | 99% | 99% | 82% | 40% | 25% | 18% | 5% | |||||
| A'ja Wilson | 6792 | 6792 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 89% | 77% | 53% | 36% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 2% |
| Jewell Loyd | 6365 | 6365 | 99% | 33% | 2% | |||||||||
| Brittney Griner | 6192 | 6192 | 12% | |||||||||||
| Kayla McBride | 6164 | 6164 | 70% | 5% | ||||||||||
| Kelsey Mitchell | 5899 | 99% | 99% | 99% | 90% | 56% | 42% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | |||
| Skylar Diggins | 5758 | 99% | 5% | |||||||||||
| Tiffany Hayes | 5305 | 24% | ||||||||||||
| Jackie Young | 99% | 99% | 99% | 69% | 44% | 28% | 20% | 16% | 8% | 1% | ||||
| Arike Ogunbowale | 99% | 99% | 99% | 65% | 35% | 18% | 10% | 6% | ||||||
| Allisha Gray | 99% | 99% | 96% | 47% | 23% | 8% | 2% | |||||||
| Kahleah Copper | 99% | 99% | 79% | 37% | 15% | 2% | ||||||||
| Rhyne Howard | 99% | 99% | 77% | 51% | 34% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 6% | 1% | ||||
| Aliyah Boston | 99% | 99% | 76% | 53% | 37% | 26% | 20% | 17% | 10% | 4% | 1% | |||
| Dearica Hamby | 99% | 99% | 40% | 13% | ||||||||||
| Kelsey Plum | 99% | 99% | 39% | 13% | ||||||||||
| Caitlin Clark | 99% | 91% | 63% | 45% | 31% | 21% | 16% | 14% | 7% | 2% | ||||
| Sabrina Ionescu | 99% | 86% | 48% | 26% | 12% | 3% | ||||||||
| Paige Bueckers | 99% | 86% | 61% | 44% | 31% | 21% | 16% | 14% | 8% | 3% | ||||
| Marina Mabrey | 99% | 77% | 40% | 20% | 7% | |||||||||
| Jonquel Jones | 99% | 77% | 22% | 1% | ||||||||||
| Courtney Williams | 99% | 77% | 23% | 1% | ||||||||||
| Sonia Citron | 99% | 75% | 53% | 37% | 26% | 17% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 1% | ||||
| Napheesa Collier | 99% | 70% | 33% | 13% | 1% | |||||||||
| Angel Reese | 99% | 68% | 46% | 31% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 5% | 1% | |||||
| Ariel Atkins | 99% | 48% | 18% | 2% | ||||||||||
| Chelsea Gray | 99% | 47% | 1% | |||||||||||
| Alyssa Thomas | 99% | 44% | ||||||||||||
| Natasha Howard | 99% | 37% | ||||||||||||
| Shakira Austin | 94% | 59% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 1% | |||||||
| Kiki Iriafen | 91% | 61% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 4% | ||||||
| Kamilla Cardoso | 79% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 3% | ||||||||
| Dominique Malonga | 70% | 46% | 31% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | |||||||
| NaLyssa Smith | 66% | 36% | 19% | 7% | ||||||||||
| Veronica Burton | 54% | 31% | 17% | 7% | ||||||||||
| Carla Leite | 53% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 2% | |||||||||
| Olivia Miles | 41% | 24% | 12% | 3% | ||||||||||
| Brittney Sykes | 40% | 1% | ||||||||||||
| Natisha Hiedeman | 39% | 15% | 1% | |||||||||||
| Gabby Williams | 37% | 14% | 1% | |||||||||||
| Janelle Salaun | 36% | 19% | 8% | 1% | ||||||||||
| Rae Burrell | 32% | 15% | 4% | |||||||||||
| Flau'jae Johnson | 25% | 11% | 2% | |||||||||||
| Bridget Carleton | 24% | 6% | ||||||||||||
| Jordin Canada | 24% | 2% | ||||||||||||
| Jade Melbourne | 24% | 9% | 1% | |||||||||||
| Naz Hillmon | 23% | 8% | ||||||||||||
| Courtney Vandersloot | 22% | |||||||||||||
| Azura Stevens | 22% | 1% | ||||||||||||
| Rickea Jackson | 17% | 3% | ||||||||||||
| Michaela Onyenwere | 17% | 1% | ||||||||||||
| Brionna Jones | 16% | |||||||||||||
| Aaliyah Edwards | 13% | 1% | ||||||||||||
| Satou Sabally | 13% | |||||||||||||
| Leila Lacan | 11% | 1% | ||||||||||||
| Ezi Magbegor | 11% | |||||||||||||
| Jessica Shepard | 11% | |||||||||||||
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa | 11% | |||||||||||||
| Saniya Rivers | 7% | |||||||||||||
| Emily Engstler | 7% | |||||||||||||
| Diamond Miller | 7% | |||||||||||||
| Aneesah Morrow | 6% | |||||||||||||
| Sophie Cunningham | 4% | |||||||||||||
| Maddy Siegrist | 4% |
Rebounds
| Player | 3000 | 4000 | 4262 | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 | 8000 | 9000 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 3456 | 8% | ||||||
| Alyssa Thomas | 3068 | 4% | ||||||
| A'ja Wilson | 99% | 99% | 99% | 50% | 18% | 1% | ||
| Angel Reese | 99% | 99% | 92% | 63% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 4% |
| Aliyah Boston | 99% | 66% | 55% | 34% | 16% | 4% | ||
| Kiki Iriafen | 99% | 55% | 47% | 30% | 15% | 4% | ||
| Jonquel Jones | 99% | 47% | 28% | 1% | ||||
| Breanna Stewart | 99% | 44% | 27% | 1% | ||||
| Dearica Hamby | 99% | 20% | 9% | |||||
| Kamilla Cardoso | 89% | 43% | 35% | 20% | 6% | |||
| Shakira Austin | 79% | 35% | 28% | 13% | 1% | |||
| NaLyssa Smith | 69% | 25% | 19% | 5% | ||||
| Dominique Malonga | 55% | 25% | 20% | 8% | ||||
| Jessica Shepard | 51% | 14% | 8% | |||||
| Natasha Howard | 40% | |||||||
| Naz Hillmon | 31% | 5% | 1% | |||||
| Aneesah Morrow | 31% | 7% | 3% | |||||
| Ezi Magbegor | 24% | |||||||
| Napheesa Collier | 22% | |||||||
| Azura Stevens | 20% | |||||||
| Emily Engstler | 13% | |||||||
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa | 12% | |||||||
| Brittney Griner | 12% | |||||||
| Jackie Young | 12% | |||||||
| Courtney Williams | 9% | |||||||
| Aaliyah Edwards | 6% | |||||||
| Natasha Mack | 6% | |||||||
| Monique Billings | 5% | |||||||
| Sonia Citron | 2% | |||||||
| Rhyne Howard | 2% | |||||||
| Veronica Burton | 1% |
Assists
| Player | 2000 | 3000 | 3234 | 4000 | 5000 |
| Courtney Vandersloot | 3034 | 3034 | 33% | ||
| Alyssa Thomas | 2178 | 14% | 1% | ||
| Chelsea Gray | 2156 | 15% | 1% | ||
| Caitlin Clark | 99% | 56% | 46% | 23% | 6% |
| Jackie Young | 99% | 41% | 30% | 7% | |
| Jordin Canada | 99% | 17% | 8% | ||
| Natasha Cloud | 99% | ||||
| Skylar Diggins | 99% | ||||
| Courtney Williams | 98% | ||||
| Veronica Burton | 96% | 31% | 24% | 7% | |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 90% | 12% | 5% | ||
| Paige Bueckers | 59% | 16% | 11% | ||
| Carla Leite | 42% | 8% | 3% | ||
| Kelsey Plum | 31% | ||||
| Rhyne Howard | 31% | ||||
| Arike Ogunbowale | 29% | ||||
| Jade Melbourne | 28% | ||||
| Sonia Citron | 25% | ||||
| Natisha Hiedeman | 17% | ||||
| Olivia Miles | 16% | ||||
| Marina Mabrey | 11% | ||||
| Leila Lacan | 7% | ||||
| Angel Reese | 7% | ||||
| Julie Allemand | 4% | ||||
| Jessica Shepard | 3% | ||||
| Saniya Rivers | 3% | ||||
| Kelsey Mitchell | 1% | ||||
| Breanna Stewart | 1% | ||||
| A'ja Wilson | 1% |
All these are current as of the end of the 2026 season.